4 Kenyans namely; Raila Odinga, William Ruto, Waihiga Mwaure and George Wajackoya, will be facing off in the presidential race in the forthcoming election.
The victory however will belong to only one person with the former prime minister standing a better chance of winning.
A number of opinion polls have also been making similar conclusions. Recent polls have shown that Raila is ahead of Ruto, with Wajackoya coming third and Mwaure trailing.
The coming presidential debate will also play a key role in establishing who is the next president because it is a strategy to convince undecided voters to pick a side among the four presidential candidates but as expected Raila will still show his competitors dust.
Here is why Raila is most likely to be sworn in as the fifth president of Kenya;
The number of times he has vied
Previously, Raila has vied for presidency four times. He vied in 1997, 2007, 2013 and 2017. The former prime minister recently said that he is making his last attempt at the country’s top seat this year.
In Kenya’s election history, after the reign of Kenyatta, no one became president by vying once. The late Mwai Kibaki became president in 2002 after unsuccessfully facing Daniel Moi in 1992 and 1997.
On the other hand, Uhuru Kenyatta became president in 2013 but had attempted to succeed Moi in 2002. He was beaten by Kibaki.
All of Raila’s contestants in 2022 elections are trying to become presidents for the first time, thus thinning their chances of leading the race. Wajackoya showed interest in the seat in 2013 and 2017 but was not on the ballot. Mwaure also announced his bid in 2013 but bolted out of the race.
Kenya’s Presidential pattern in terms of age
The history of Kenya’s elections has seen an alternating pattern of age, old and young, among those sworn in.
The first president of the country Jomo Kenyatta was sworn in when he was 67 years old. Moi took over from him at the age of 54 years. Kibaki then got the seat when he was 71 years old and Uhuru came in at the age of 52 years. That means that the presidency this year has to go to an older person.
Among the four contestants, Raila is the oldest and the only one above 65. Wajackoya is 63, Ruto is 55 while Mwaure’s age is estimated to be not above 65.
Raila and Ruto are the most influential among them, but Raila has an upper hand when it comes to the age pattern.
Previous sufferings
Raila suffered injustices in the past as he fought for the country’s liberation just like his father Jaramogi during the reign of president Moi. Raila was jailed a couple of times and mistreated while in prison. His wife was sacked as a teacher because of Raila and his children grew up without a father since he was always locked up.
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Many believe that it is payback time and he should be rewarded the presidency for the pains and injustices he suffered just like it happened with Nelson Mandela in South Africa.
Transitional moment
The ODM leader will be sworn in in August because he is the only one who can serve as a transitional leader among his competitors.
Since independence, Kenya has had multiple elections but only two communities have held the top seat. Among his opponents, two are from communities that have already been in power. The third person, Wajackoya, has a very minimal chance of beating Raila.
Deep State
Raila has the support of the government and it is not easy to beat a government anywhere in the world. Ruto would have been in Raila’s shoes currently but his fall out with Uhuru Kenyatta destroyed that chance, turning him into an opposition leader and a critic of the the deep state.
International Connections
Jome Kenyatta became president because he had the support of the British/Western community. Moi did not have such connections. He was only lucky because of what the constitution dictated regarding the death of a sitting president.
When it came to Kibaki, he was a well respected economist worldwide and at one point he was considered for a top job at the International Monetary Fund(IMF).
Photo|Courtesy
Uhuru also had connections because of his father’s influence and the British/western community preferred him over Raila who was leaning towards the Eastern community(Middle east and Arab).
Now that Raila is Uhuru preferred successor means that there is no doubt that he can be accepted by the international community.
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