Held by the balls politically, Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga must quickly look for the Wiper party leader Steven Kalonzo Musyoka as early as yesterday to compete fairly with deputy president William Samoei Ruto in the looming general elections.
Having won Amani national Congress (ANC) leader Musalia Mudavadi on his side, the chicken seller from Sugoi is clearly ahead of all the other presidential candidates including the ODM leader. How William Ruto managed to disintegrate OKA and win Mudavadi on his side (and Wetangula as a top up) is still a matter under debate. Whether he used money or not is not important for now although there were rumors that William Ruto was working closely with Mr. Mudavadi to completely destroy and bring down the One Kenya Alliance (OKA).
At the heart of the matter according to a local publication was Wiliam Ruto’s plan to wrestle control of the Luhya Nation from Raila Odinga by using Musalia Mudavadi to divide the community which has about four million voters.
The local publication added that Ruto’s fear was that if Mudavadi was not in the 2022 presidential race, then the Luhya vote bloc would lean towards the ODM leader going by the current defection of Luhya MPS in Ford Kenya and and ANC towards the Azimio as recently witnessed in the Bukhungu stadium in a rally that was organized by COTU boss Mr. Francis Atwoli.
Two weeks ago, Musalia’s efforts to divide Luhyas and the One Kenya Alliance were at play when he skipped an important meeting in Naivasha which was meant to consider a report on its possible presidential candidate.
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetangula, KANU chairman Gideon Moi and ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi were to consider the report on who among them was best suited to be their One Kenya Alliance (OKA) flagbearer.
According to Citizen weekly, the report was prepared by the technical committee that comprised a number of leaders namely Kakamega senator cleophas Malala and Nairobi senator Johnson sakaja representing Musalia, Kitui senator Enock Wambua, Mutula Kilonzo Junior and Fafi MP Abdikarim Ousman representing kalonzo Musyoka.
On the other hand, Moses Wetagula was represented by Kiminini MP Chris Wamalwa and Ford Kenya organizing secretary Mandu Mandu. Finally, Baringo senator Gideon Moi was represented by Tiaty legislator William kamket.
The technical team had prepared a report on possible scenarios on who was best suited to take on DP Ruto and Raila Odinga in the August polls.
The committee, according to sources, had considered each candidate’s numbers, availability of resources, regional representation and negotiation skills. But Musalia Mudavadi gave the meeting a wide berth.
Little did the other OKA principals know that Musalia had already made up his mind to join the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and it was just a matter of time before the ANC boss showed them his true betrayal colors.
To make it worse, Moses Wetangula had attended the OKA Naivasha meeting but our source has so far revealed that the Ford Kenya party leader was just acting as Musalia’s mole in the Naivasha meeting and taking all the intelligence to the ANC boss.
That aside, Musalia Mudavadi has gone to Ruto with only Gideon Moi and Kalonzo Musyoka remaining in the One Kenya Alliance (OKA). At the same time, it goes without doubts that the Baringo senator will automatically shift to Azimio La Umoja if push comes to shove.
However, the main factor here is the Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka who is now selling like hotcake because of the 2 million Ukambani votes that he comes with. In terms of political seniority, Kalonzo definitely controls more votes than even Musalia Mudavadi and it goes without saying that Raila needs these votes to the last man.
As we speak, Raila Odinga will lose some votes to Mudavadi which implies that he is entering the 2022 presidential race somehow punctured with the disintegration of the former National Super Alliance (NASA). In as much as Mudavadi and Wetangula are political weaklings, they may of course go with like 25% of the Western votes and deliver the same to the deputy president.
With the exit of the two OKA principals, Raila Odinga cannot again afford to lose the Wiper leader since that will disadvantage him and further make his political dreams impractical. Since politics is a game of perception, the exit of Kalonzo Musyoka will just put a stop to the Canaan journey.
Thus, Raila Odinga needs Kalonzo Musyoka as soon as yesterday and he has to do all he can to bring the soft spoken man from mwingi South to his circles. However, there is one big problem!
It is alleged that the National Super Alliance (NASA) deposited a partnership agreement with the registrar of political parties that Raila would not vie in 2022 no matter the outcome of 2017 election.
Shall kalonzo maintain his stand that he is going up to the ballot (Which is the likely outcome due to the Wanjigi factor who is funding him), then Raila may be forced to shelve his ambitions and just back him because he will stand a zero chance to win against RutoMudavadi with kalonzo also going alone.
With Raila declaring Kalonzo Tosha, believe you me Ruto will go home by 6 AM even before the polling stations open because they will lock the North Esatern votes, Coastal Votes, Nyanza Votes and of course the Wiper leader will garner like 50% of the Central votes. Further, Raila’s backing will also earn Kalonzo not less than 60 percent of votes from Western assuming Mudavadi does not run and is given a small post like A CS or a speaker by the UDA fraternity.
Again, Musalia stands no chance to deputize William Ruto since such a move will cost Ruto the Mt. Kenya votes and he is not ready for that. It therefore goes without saying that the best Musalia can be in Ruto’s circle is to get “the other positions.”
Also, in the unlikely event that Ruto declares Musalia tosha, then there will be no need for Raila to contest because such a move will send him to the deepest end of political oblivion. A Mudavadi Tosha with Ruto’s backing means Musalia Mudavadi will garner more than 80% of Western votes, 95% of the Riftvalley votes and roughly 70% of the central votes if Raila is running. In such a case it goes without doubt that Raila will lose the election by 8AM.
However, all is not lost for Raila since he can also declare Kalonzo Tosha to face off with Ruto’s Mudavadi tosha. Having been a vice president in the Kibaki government, Kalonzo has a more national outlook compared to Mudavadi. Also, the Wiper leader has almost zero corruption scandals on his head unlike Mudavadi who is being haunted by the Goldenberg and grabbing of the cemetery amongst other issues.
Furthermore, Kalonzo Musyoka can easily sell in the Mt. Kenya region because he has roots in Meru which automatically puts him closer to the Mt. Kenya people. Thus, he may have an upper hand to fight for central votes with the backing of Raila and of course the deep state (they are uncomfortable with Ruto and so his Tosha candidate may suffer the same fate).
In a nutshell, Raila must find a way of working with Kalonzo Musyoka as early as yesterday having lost Wetangula and Mudavadi to deputy president William Ruto. Na ikienda mbaya kalonzo aweke kichwa ngumu basi baba aseme tu Kalonzo Tosha to put a permanent nail on Ruto’s political coffin.
Most importantly, Raila must unleash his financial muscles and dangle money on air to make him more attractive like Ruto (they say siasa ni pesa). He must invest in voter registration in Nyanza and other strongholds even if it means sending vehicles to ferry people to registration centers.
It seems individual aspirants are not doing much to mobilize people to register going by his recent sentiments that his backyard is not registering as much. Therefore, Raila lazima afungue mdomo ya pesa (he must invest in the future) because his opponent like Ruto is doing the same in his stronghold anyway. Telling disillusioned people who have not seen the value of voting (due to corruption in the counties, poor roads, zero drugs in hospitals etc) to go and register by just word of mouth is not enough.
Opinion by William Ouma.