Professor Kaburu Kinoti, an insider in Ruto camp, has admitted that they are worried since the bedrock support of its Central Kenya is shifting at a fast pace.
Even as Ruto continues to receive defectors from Jubilee and other parties, his camp is shaken by Raila Odinga’s progress especially in Mt Kenya region.
When Ruto thought he had full control of the vote rich Mt Kenya region, research shows that Raila’s continued onslaught may complicate matters for him.
Professor Kaburu Kinoti who teaches at Kenyatta University told People Daily that Ruto is caught between a rock and a hard place.
“I did a statistical analysis of the possibility of Jubilee winning in 2017 and out of a possible 1000 scenarios, jubilee was going to win after bagging 90% of the Votes. That is what Ruto needs but the shocking twist is that Raila will be president if he only manages 24% of the votes regardless of the turnout”, said Professor Kinoti.
Professor Kinoti sentiments comes amid recent report by Mizani Africa research firm which showed that Raila and his ODM party are quickly gaining ground in Mt Kenya region.
A survey conducted by Mizani Africa research firm between 1st October to 13th showed that Raila’s popularity in Mt Kenya has soared from a single digit to 27.1%, while Ruto’s popularity plummeted to 58.2%.
Ruto had an approval rating of 85% in Mt Kenya in January 2021 but by October his support has dropped to less than 60% – just as Raila started campaigning in the region.
An analysis of the 2013 presidential elections shows 92% of the voters from Mt Kenya gave President Uhuru 1,895,075 votes while Raila only got 84,010 votes. The same vote pattern was repeated in the 2017 elections.
Raila had been getting about 3% of the total votes in Mt Kenya region in the past elections, political strategists say the ODM leader needs about 15% support from the region if he is to win the presidency.
Professor Kaburu Kinoti however notes that all is not lost as the DP can still turn around his fortune if he engages OKA principals.
Also read: 2 Of The 4 OKA Principals Throw In Towel And Decide To Support Raila
“The DP should engage the One Kenya Alliance leaders. OKA is drifting towards Raila Odinga. With the mountain shifting, Ruto should talk to OKA. If they endorse Raila, then it’s game-shot. Ruto’s goose will be cooked,” said Professor Kinoti.
Also read: Ruto Making Calls To Woo Two OKA Principals Who’re Still Hesitant To Join Raila
According to the statistics expert, Ruto made a grievous mistake by thinking he would penetrate the mountain without the help of regional leaders. He said said the DP’s decision to ignore regional kingpins will return to haunt him.
“The deputy president has shown contempt for regional kingpins. He has made them feel unwanted and this has shifted the narrative in the mountain region. The middle class is shifting in droves. People are beginning to doubt the messages and time is running out fast,” Kinoti told People Daily.
He added that;
“I have supported him but truth be told the path to the mountain has been made difficult by those the DP doesn’t want to talk to.”
Also read: Ruto Angrily Fires At Kikuyu Party Leaders Who Still Refuse To Join Him
Ruto has insisted that all parties backing him must dissolve and join UDA, a move that has put him at loggerheads with several party leaders across the country.
Ruto’s fallout with some of Mt Kenya leaders led by Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria and The Service Party (TSP) leader Mwangi Kiunjuri is as a result of shunning coalition deals.
The Gatundu South MP on Tuesday October 26th projected that Raila would win 2022 election giving an analysis of how the regions would vote.
Related: Why Moses Kuria Believes Raila Will Defeat Ruto By 8AM
