Kalonzo is many things but NOT stupid, he knows very well he stands no chance against Raila Odinga and William Ruto but nonetheless he chose to vie as president.
The Wiper leader ditched Azimio La Umoja coalition after Raila picked Martha Karua as his running mate over him.
Kalonzo announced that he will be vying for the presidency in the August 9th elections after he severed ties with Raila-led coalition.
In a bid to to beat the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission’s (IEBC) deadline for submitting running mates, Kalonzo unveiled Andrew Sunkuli as his deputy president designate.
Speaking at his party’s command center on Monday May 16th, Musyoka said he would have picked KANU Chairman Gideon Moi as his running mate had One Kenya Alliance (OKA) ‘not been messed up’.
“If OKA had not been messed up, I would have convinced my brother Gideon Moi as my running mate,” said Kalonzo.
Kalonzo’s running mate Andrew Sunkuli in his acceptance speech expressed his excitement and enthusiasm for being honored by the Wiper leader.
Sunkuli surprised those in attendance by saying that he thought Kalonzo was looking for someone to jog with when he approached him to be his running mate in the August 9th poll.
“When he (Kalonzo) told me I was going to be his running mate, I thought he meant we would be jogging together…Then it came to me what he meant. Today, I accept to be his running mate,” he said.
Sunkuli added that Kenyans should stop following popularity and pick quality instead of quantity. He urged the country to give Kalonzo and him a chance to lead.
“This country is getting used to popularity tyranny…If all we chase are quantities in numbers, when will quality have its time?” he exclaimed.
So why is Kalonzo really vying for president when he knows he stands no chance of beating Raila and Ruto?
Well, the answer goes back to 2007 general election when Raila faced late Mwai Kibaki in the presidential election.
Raila won against Kibaki but the election was rigged in favor of the latter. Not only did Kibaki lose the election but he also didn’t have the majority in Parliament.
The late president approached Kalonzo to save the situation, the Wiper leader came third in the 2007 presidential election.
Kalonzo was offered the position of Vice President (the old constitution was different that time, the president could hire and fire the VP at will) in exchange for joining Kibaki’s side.
Even with Kalonzo on his side, Kibaki still didn’t have the majority in Parliament. Raila’s ODM had the majority and they ended up choosing Kenneth Marende as the Speaker.
Back to August 9th 2022 general election, Kalonzo will emerge third again after Raila or Ruto. Of course he can’t be appointed deputy president because the constitution is different now, but he can be a tie-breaker in the event that either Raila or Ruto fail to attain 50+1% votes in the presidential election.
The President of Kenya is elected using a modified version of the two-round system: to win in the first round, a candidate must receive over 50% of the vote and at least 25% of the vote in a minimum of 24 of the 47 counties.
Raila and Ruto will be begging Kalonzo for support in case there is a re-run. The Wiper leader will use the opportunity to bag a good deal for himself.
Scenario number two…
In case Raila or Ruto wins in the first round and they fail to have the majority in Parliament, again Kalonzo will play a key role in determining who has control of the August House.
Kalonzo will still benefit even if Kenya’s fifth president wins with a majority in Parliament, he could align himself with the opposition to frustrate the government of the day.
Whoever wins the presidency will still need Kalonzo one way or another. Remember there are no permanent enemies and friends in politics, just conflicting interests.
Related: 6 Reasons Raila Odinga Picked Martha Karua As His Running Mate Over Kalonzo
