ODM leader Raila Odinga will be making his fifth attempt at the country’s top seat in the August 9 general elections.
The former prime minister made his first attempt on the presidency in 1997 when he faced The late Daniel Arap Moi of KANU and Mwai Kibaki(Democratic Party). He vied under the National Development Party and came third.
Others in the hotly contested race were The late Wamalwa Kijana(Ford-Kenya), Charity Ngilu, Koigi Wamwere, Wangari Maathai and several other candidates.
In 2002, Raila did not vie but supported Mwai Kibaki who won the elections. He made other unsuccessful attempts in 2007, 2013 and 2017.
This year however, Raila is confident that the seat is his because he has the support of the sitting president, Uhuru Kenyatta, which means that he has an arguably solid support in Mt. Kenya region.
Things might however not turn out as expected because of the unwavering support in a number of counties. Those counties include;
Nakuru
The county has over 1 million registered voters. In 2013, Uhuru and Ruto got 80% of the votes from the county while Raila got 17%. The trend was the same in the nullified August 2017 polls and Raila has to work harder to get more votes. This is because Ruto has his own percentage in the 80% of the votes.
Raila however has an upper hand because of Rigathi Gachagua’s ruined reputation in Molo but Ruto also has a big following in Nakuru.
 Kilifi
Kilifi boasts of 588, 602 voters. This is one of the counties that supported ODM fully in 2017 general elections, with voters electing the party’s members from MCA to President in huge numbers.
Raila garnered 83% of the votes casted in August 2017 election and Uhuru got 15%.Â
So far, the sitting governor Amason Kingi dumped Raila for Ruto. Malindi MP Aisha Jumwah is also in support for the Kenya Kwanza flagbearer and in recent days, Ruto has managed to penetrate the county thus gaining a huge following
Kakamega
The county has a total of 844,551 voters who are expected to fully participate in the general elections.Â
In the 2013 elections, Uhuru and Ruto managed to garner 2.6% of the votes in the county, the ODM leader was able to secure 64% of the votes while Musalia Mudavadi got 31% of the votes.Â
Undoubtedly, the trends must have been the same in 2017 election except that Mudavadi was on Raila’s side. In the nullified results, Raila led with 87% and Uhuru only got 11% of the votes.
Now that Mudavadi is on Ruto’s side, there is a high chance that those who voted for him in 2013 might still support him in this coming elections thus boosting Ruto’s numbers. Ruto has also managed to pull a number of leaders from the county to his side including former senator Bony Khalwale who is reportedly leading in the senatorial race with 64% while his ODM competitor Brian Lishenga is at 17%.
Cleophas Malala who is also influential in the county.
Bungoma
According to IEBC’s voter register list, the county has a total of 646, 598 registered voters. In 2013, Raila beat Ruto and Uhuru with 52% of votes from the county with the duo managing to get only 12 % of the total votes cast while Mudavadi garnered 30% of the votes.Â
The presidential results of the August 2017 elections showed that Raila secured 68% of the votes while Uhuru got 30%.
Bungoma senator Moses Wetang’ula supported Raila both in 2013 and 2017 and Mudavadi joined the team in 2017.
Raila should now be worried since the two leaders who are very influential in the county decided to support Ruto.
Nyamira
The county has 323, 283 voters. Raila led in the county in 2013 elections but in August 2017, Raila and Ruto beat Raila.
To be able to beat Raila in Nyanza, Ruto has been targeting Nyamira, Kisii and Migori.
Nyamira is a headache to Raila because in the last election none of the MPs and MCAs came from ODM although the party managed to secure the gubernatorial and senatorial seats.
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